Concern for the “short rains” 2018 season in eastern Horn of Africa

Contributors: Laura Harrison, Chris Funk, Martin Landsfeld, Will Turner, Greg Husak, Juliet Way-Henthorne

As East Africa’s October to December “short” rainy season approaches its midpoint in many areas, parts of Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and much of southern Somalia have seen substantial rainfall deficits. Factors include a late start to the onset of seasonal rains, fewer than normal rain days, and long dry spells. Based on the Climate Hazards Center Early Estimate, a monitoring data resource that provides early indications of sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall performance, central Kenya and Somalia’s cropping zones may end up with 50-100mm deficits for the October 1st to November 10th, 2018 period (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Climate Hazards Center Early Estimate for the 2018 short rains status made on November 5th, 2018. The CHC Early Estimate approach combines CHIRPS final and preliminary rainfall estimates (30-day or 60-day) with a compatible, unbiased version of the 10-day GEFS ensemble mean forecast (see Figure 3). Figure 1 is a rainfall anomaly composite of preliminary CHIRPS October 2018 rainfall and CHIRPS-GEFS, released November 1st for Nov. 1st-10th. Note that October data is preliminary and subject to change in the final version of CHIRPS, which will be available mid-November. In CHIRPS final, Somalia data includes FAO SWALIM reports and Ethiopia data includes Ethiopia National Meteorological Agency reports.

While some areas may receive relief in November, poor crop outcomes should be a concern in short growing season areas, such as Somalia. Concern for the performance of the short rains in the eastern Horn and Deyr crop production, in particular, is based on convergent evidence from independent data sets and a pessimistic outlook from the current rainfall forecast.

  1. Convergent evidenceUSGS’s expedited MODIS NDVI anomalies show vegetation productivity in a degraded state at the end of October. Like CHIRPS, NOAA CPC’s ARC2 data shows expansive rainfall deficits across the eastern Horn and similar patterns with respect to rainfall anomalies (Figure 2). These came during the typically wettest month of the short cropping season in Somalia’s main cropping zones.

Figure 2. Left: USGS/EROS eMODIS NDVI anomaly for last 10 days on October 2018. Figure from USGS FEWS NET Data Portal https://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews. Right: NOAA CPC ARC2 October to December 2018 rainfall anomaly.  Figure from CPC Africa Desk. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/africa/africa.shtml

2. Rainfall outlooks

Based on GEFS forecasts, relief is not expected during the first two weeks of November for most of Kenya and for at least two of Somalia’s main cropping zones (Figure 3). National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts for November rainfall vary widely. Outlooks from NOAA CPC, based on historical November and December rainfall, indicate a higher than 60% chance of below normal OND totals in southern Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia.

Figure 3. CHIRPS-GEFS rainfall anomaly forecast for the 10-day period beginning November 4th, 2018. More can be found about this data product and how to access it a blog on the UCSB Climate Hazards Center website http://blog.chg.ucsb.edu/?p=443